Ottawa (Jan 22) – New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the Conservatives maintain a significant advantage in both sheer vote intent numbers as well as motivation.
In a current election scenario, two-in-five (41%) would support Pierre Poilievre and the CPC while one-quarter (24%) would vote for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. The Conservatives have maintained a double-digit vote lead since last September.
A look beyond the topline vote intention uncovers a significant gap in voter inspiration. Three-in-five (62%) CPC voters (one quarter of the electorate overall) say they intend to vote Conservative because they support the party, its leader and its policies, over blocking the formation of another Trudeau term. More disquieting for the Liberals: an inverse trend.
Three-in-five (63%) who intend to vote for Trudeau and the Liberals say they are much more motivated by stopping a CPC government rather than support for the party, leader, or policies. This means just nine per cent of the Canadian electorate is passionate about and inspired by the prospect of voting Liberal.
While a federal election is unlikely in the near term, the silver lining for the Liberals is that the CPC lead may not be as cavernous as it appears. More than one-third (36%) current NDP supporters and one-in-five (19%) current Bloc Québécois voters say they would switch their vote to the Liberals if the CPC were on the track to victory in an upcoming election. Others (30% of NDP supporters, 26% of BQ supporters) say it is something they would consider. In a world where the Liberals picked up these switchers, the gap between the two parties could narrow to seven points.
As the clock ticks down on this current government, both parties find themselves with leaders unappealing to much of the electorate. Two-thirds (64%) of Canadians, including at least three-in-five of men and women of all ages, say they disapprove of Trudeau. Poilievre fares better as two-in-five (40%) say they have a favourable view of the Conservative leader. However, there is a wide gender divide on the CPC leader. Poilievre is buoyed by men – a majority say they view him favourably – but is viewed poorly among women, who view him unfavourably by a two-to-one margin (57% unfavourable, 29% favourable).
