Toronto (Jan 15) – With the 2024 American Presidential election looks starkly familiar to the 2020 edition, it is expected that Joe Biden and Donald Trump will represent the Democratic and Republican Parties respectively. For Canadians, a repeat outcome from 2020 would be welcome, while a Trump victory has many predicting dire consequences for both sides of the 49th parallel.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds two-thirds of Canadians concerned American democracy will not be able to survive another four years of Trump at the helm. Trump himself has publicly mused about his plans for “retribution” if he wins again, after being impeached twice in his first four years and continuing to claim that the last election was “rigged” against him.
In this report – the first in a three-part series looking at the state of democracy in Canada and the United States – half of Canadians say they worry that their southern neighbour could be on the way to becoming an authoritarian state, something recent studies have suggested as a growing global trend.
In terms of domestic impacts, Canadians are three times as likely to say that a Biden victory would be better for the Canadian economy (53%) than a Trump win (18%). A significant number (29%) aren’t convinced it would matter either way for Canada. The same trends are true when considering each outcome and the impact on Canada’s defense agreements with the U.S., global peace and security, and the overall Canada-U.S. relationship, with most saying Biden would be better for Canada, and the rest divided between indifference or a preference for Trump.
Past Canadian Conservative voters are more likely (by a slight margin) to say that Trump winning the presidency would be beneficial to Canada’s economy (37%), while 33 per cent say neither candidate would make a difference and 27 per cent say Biden would be better. Just four per cent of past Liberals and seven per cent of past New Democrats say Trump would be better, while the vast majority prefer Biden.
As observers cast their gaze toward November and the electoral contest to come, Canadians join many Americans in worrying about election security. Just 12 per cent of Canadians say they have full confidence that elections will be safe and secure, while twice as many (23%) say they have no confidence at all. Another two-in-five have doubts (38%), with 27 per cent also saying they’re more confident than not.
Among those who lack confidence, half (49%) say both Republican and Democratic states are a source of concern, while the rest are twice as likely to say they’re primarily worried about Red States (34%) rather than Blue ones (17%).
