London, Jan 9 (IANS) Investors around the world are warning governments over “unmoored” levels of public debt, saying that excessive pre-election borrowing promises risk sparking a bond market backlash, media reports said.
Government debt issuance in the US and the UK is expected to soar to the highest level on record in the coming year, with the exception of the early stages of the Covid pandemic. Emerging markets are set to add to the deluge of bond sales, after government debt climbed to an all-time high of 68.2 per cent of GDP last year, according to the Institute of International Finance, Financial Times reported.
Deficits are “out of control and the real story is that there’s no mechanism for bringing them under control,” said Jim Cielinski, global head of fixed income at Janus Henderson.
He said that the issue would become a serious concern to markets “in the next six to 12 months as something that matter[s] a lot.”
The US Treasury will issue around $4tn of bonds this year with a maturity of between two and 30 years according to estimates from Apollo Global Management, up from $3tn last year and $2.3tn in 2018.
Net issuance, which is adjusted for Federal Reserve purchases and existing debt falling due, will be $1.6tn over 12 months to the end of September according to calculations by RBC Capital Markets, the second highest year on record.
The Canadian bank estimates that net issuance in 2024-2025 will surpass pandemic-era levels, Financial Times reported.
The IIF, which acts as a global trade group for the finance industry, warned that a swath of elections and ongoing geopolitical frictions in the emerging world “raise concerns about increased government borrowing and fiscal discipline, including India, South Africa, Pakistan and the US.
“If upcoming elections lead to populist policies aimed at controlling social tensions, the result could be still more government borrowing and still less fiscal restraint,” the Financial Times quoted the IIF as saying. An abrupt surge in government expenditures during this global election cycle “could further increase the interest burden for many sovereign debtors — from already high levels,” IFF added.
