Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects gold prices to shoot up to Rs 63,000 per 10 gms in the medium term driven by the safe haven demand that stems for uncertainties due to the Israel-Hamas war and also the fact that central banks worldwide are holding on to interest rates.
“This year, gold witnessed a roller-coaster ride providing both bulls and bears an opportunity; which too offered bargain levels for long term investments.Aggressive rate hikes by major central banks briefly took the sheen out of bullion. However, recent geopolitical tensions and expectations of a pivot in current monetary policy stance provided a strong support to gold prices,” the Motilal Oswal report states.
There certainly are some headwinds for the precious metal like expectations of soft landing, further rate hikes, ease off in geo-political tensions, and higher real rates. However, risk premium is being priced in gold, from pandemic, to Russia-Ukraine war and the latest Israel-Hamas dispute, the report states.
An ease off in the Middle East dispute and/or continuation of hawkish stance from the US Fed could weigh on gold prices. However, the above factors could have a hangover for longer than expected and keep the party going for gold bulls helping it guide towards a medium target of Rs. 63,000, the report adds.
Gold and silver have witnessed sharp swings this year, as a result of a few major fundamental changes like, central bank policies, geo-political uncertainties, debate between hard & and soft landing, higher buying interest in riskier assets and volatility in Dollar Index & Yields.
Of the above, geopolitics and the Central Bank’s policy position have taken centre stage. The volatility until now has been fierce as gold marked a near all-time high of $2,070 at the start of this year and then reversed to lows close to $1,800, and now back to $2,000, the report points out.
Historically, bullion demand appetite rises up over the festive season, but off late the demand trends have witnessed a sharp shift where market participants do not specifically wait for a reason, and invest whenever there is a reasonable correction of bargain hunting opportunity. There are too many narratives driving the gold bullish story and the reasons keep on changing time and again. But one thing is certain – had you invested in gold during Diwali 2019, by this Diwali you would have been sitting on 60 per cent returns on your domestic gold investments.
SPDR Gold shares on a 5 and a 1 Year horizon have posted 30 per cent and 10 per cent gains, respectively, while on a similar time frame average gains of domestic Gold ETF is to the tune of 55 per cent and 15 per cent respectively, the report added.
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