While government dissatisfaction has become a familiar trend in Ontario in recent years, the ranks of those disenchanted with the performance of their respective provincial governments are growing a recent study shows.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds provincial governments’ scores on ARI’s Government Performance Index (GPI) facing considerable attrition. The GPI score represents the average number of residents saying their own provincial government is doing a good or very good job across 13 different issues, from health care to inflation. The Ontario provincial government under Premier Doug Ford scores the lowest in the country (21), tied with Manitoba under Premier Heather Stefanson. This represents a four-point drop for Ford’s government, which was already poorly appraised.
Alongside Manitoba, the government of Ontario rates most poorly in the nation on the overall GPI, with a score of just 21. This score is the lowest recorded for any government in Canada in nearly a decade of tracking.
On the west coast, the government of David Eby faces increasing negativity as well. The British Columbia GPI now sits at 27, down five points since March. This, as his government (like many others in the country) faces criticism over its handling of top provincial issues. One-in-six (15%) say the government is handling the cost-of-living file well, while just 11 per cent say this of housing affordability.
Satisfaction with provincial government performance across the country has diminished greatly over the past three years. The overall average now sits at 30, a decline from the 46 seen in June 2020. This downward trend has been largely driven by overwhelming dissatisfaction over how provinces have been performing and responding to two key files: health care and the cost of living. Nowhere in the country do more than 38 per cent of residents say their province is handling health care or the cost-of-living crisis well (Alberta leads both categories at 38 per cent).
Overall, the most satisfaction is found in Saskatchewan. This is driven by majority praise in handling the economy (60%), energy policy (61%), and the deficit (56%). Despite this, concerns linger among Saskatchewanians over health care and the cost of living, wherein fewer than two-in-five offer the government kudos.
Ontarians join British Columbians in choosing housing affordability as a top issue at the highest levels in Canada – in each province two-in-five say this. A June report found that rent in Toronto had risen 15 per cent compared to 2022 levels, while home prices remain among the highest in the country. New mayor-elect Olivia Chow will have her chance to affect change after winning the Toronto election on June 26, but will likely not have the most amicable partner in Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives. Ford claimed a Chow mayorship would be an “unmitigated disaster” during the campaign, though said he would look for “common ground” after the results came in.
On each of the three top issues, fewer than one-in-five Ontarians say the provincial government is performing well. Conversely, criticism on each is overwhelming.
Yet as has been the case for several years now, the division between the centre-left vote finds the Progressive Conservatives with a comfortable lead in provincial vote intent. Currently, 36 per cent of Ontario residents say they would support the PCPO incumbents if an election were held, while approximately one-quarter would vote for the NDP (27%) and Liberal Party (25%).
