Cyclone Biparjoy has picked up speed after re-curving and is now lying very close to the coast of Gujarat.
It is likely to make landfall by the evening on Thursday, Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather, said on Wednesday.
It can cause heavy to very heavy rainfall over southwest Rajasthan as well, and thereafter its impact could be seen in Uttarakhand, southern Haryana, Delhi-NCR and western Uttar Pradesh.
Palawat told IANS that as Biparjoy moves further closer to the coast, it has started losing its intensity and will continue to weaken further as it encounters dry winds from Rajasthan and Sindh region of Pakistan.
“Presently, it is moving at a speed of 180 kmph, but at the time of landfall, the wind speed would be around 130-140 kmph,” he said.
The coastal areas are being evacuated as cyclone Biparjoy approaches Gujarat. It will also be accompanied by strong storm surges, increasing the threat of flash floods and inundation.
Regarding its impact on Gujarat, Palawat said that while most parts of the state will see heavy rains, the northwestern parts of Gujarat would feel the maximum impact.
Places such as Rann of Kutch, Naliya, Bhuj, Kandla, Gandhidham and Mandvi would be most affected, he said.
While cyclone Biparjoy will weaken further after the landfall, it would be strong enough to leave a massive trail of destruction, Palawat warned.
On its impact on other places, the met official said that by June 16, Biparjoy will reach Rajasthan as a weakened system with the strength of a depression.
“It is expected to cause heavy to very heavy rainfall over southwest Rajasthan, with a wind speed of 80-90 kmph. Thereafter, it would further move up and may travel to Uttarakhand. We can expect rains of varied intensity from June 18-20 over southern Haryana, Delhi-NCR, and western Uttar Pradesh,” Palawat forecast.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has spoken to the three service chiefs and reviewed the preparations of the forces to deal with the impact of Biparjoy.
After reviewing the preparations, Singh said the armed forces are ready to provide every possible assistance to the civil authorities in tackling any situation or contingency.
Meanwhile, according to a report titled “Changing status of tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean”, the frequency, duration and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea have increased significantly.
The intensity of cyclones has increased in the Arabian Sea by about 20 per cent (post-monsoon) to 40 per cent (pre-monsoon).
There has been a 52 per cent increase in the number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea, while very severe cyclones have increased by 150 per cent.
“The oceans have become warmer on account of climate change. In fact, a recent study shows that the Arabian Sea has warmed up by almost 1.2-degree Celsius since March, thus the conditions are very much favourable for the rapid intensification of the system so it has potential to sustain the strength for a longer period,” said Raghu Murtugudde, professor, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland and IIT Bombay.
“Climate models are unable to pick up this rapid intensification of cyclones because they do not include ocean conditions properly and that is their limitation. Cyclones nowadays can retain their energy for quite a long number of days. One example of this trend was Cyclone Amphan which continued to travel over land as a strong cyclone and resulted in massive devastation.
“As long as oceans are warm and winds are favourable, cyclones will retain their intensity for a longer period,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and Lead IPCC Author.
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