An exclusive CVoter opinion poll conducted for ABP News reveals that the Congress enjoys a small but significant edge over the BJP in the Assembly elections due in Madhya Pradesh.
Interestingly, it is advantage Congress more because of voter “fatigue” with the BJP than any strong anti-incumbency sentiments against the government.
The other factor that seems to be helping the Congress have an edge is that the induction of Jyotiraditya Scindia and his supporters to the BJP in March 2020 doesn’t not seem to have changed the voter tilt towards the Congress in the Chambal-Gwalior region.
According to the CVoter survey, the Congress is projected to get a vote share of 44.3 per cent in the current polls, up from 40.9 per cent in the 2018 Assembly elections.
The BJP vote share is also projected to go up from 41 per cent in 2018 to 42.1 per cent in the current elections.
The BSP that once had a formidable presence in pockets of the state bordering Uttar Pradesh is witnessing a collapsing support base with projected vote share dropping to 5 per cent in 2018 to 2.2 per cent this time.
According to the CVoter survey, the Congress is projected to win between 118 to 130 seats in the current elections compared to the 114 it had won in 2018.
The majority mark in the 230 member Assembly is 116.
On the other hand, the BJP is projected to win between 99 to 111 seats in the current elections.
In 2018, the party had won 109 seats when the Congress had formed a government with Kamal Nath as Chief Minister.
However, a revolt by Jyotiraditya Scindia and more than two other MLAs in March 2020 had led to the fall of the Congress government and Shivraj Singh Chouhan returned as Chief Minister of the state.
A total of 28,223 registered votes were interviewed b members of CVoter. The margin of error is 3 per cent.
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