Ottawa (Jan 11) – The new year has not begun well for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as recent data reveals that the Liberals have slid further down in the public opinion polls.
From January 4 to 9, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of their regular national omnibus surveys. Conservatives gained 4 points since mid-December and now lead by 17 over the Liberals, the poll showed.
“If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 18% and the Greens at 4%,” Abacus founder and lead researcher David Coletto said in a statement. The Bloc Quebecois is at 33% in Quebec.
Since the last Abacus survey, the Conservatives are up 4 while the Liberals are down 3. This is a statistically significant shift in vote intentions since mid-December, according to Coletto.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 17 in BC, and 12 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 12-points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the BQ leads by 6 over the Liberals with the Conservatives at 22%.
“If we isolate British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada only, we find the Conservatives up 2, the Liberals down 2 from our last survey in December across these three regions/provinces,” Coletto added.
Demographically, the Conservatives lead among all age groups with the Liberal vote share correlated with age. The Liberal vote share rises as the age of the respondent increases. The opposite is true for the NDP.
Abacus found almost little difference in vote intention between men and women except for NDP support which is higher among women and Conservative support which is higher among men.
When asked if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 54% say they are open to voting Conservative (up 4 since December 12) while 41% are open to voting Liberal (-2) and 41% for the NDP.
Coletto pointed out that this is the smallest accessible voter pool for the Liberals that Abacus have measured since 2015.
“For the first time since the last election, we are also reporting voter motivation – a key indicator on possible voter turnout differentials by party,” Coletto stated. “We find that Conservative supporters are more likely to say they would vote than Liberal or NDP supporters. The 6-point difference between Conservative and Liberal enthusiasm is significant and something we will continue to watch and track.”
