The Nifty midcap and smallcap indices, with robust rallies of 42 per cent and 49 per cent on a YTD basis, respectively, now carry a 25 per cent premium to their long-term averages, signalling potential valuation concerns, Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said on Tuesday.
Following the recent impressive surge, the Nifty50 underwent a consolidation phase on Tuesday due to anticipated elevated November inflation in the country, driven by rising food prices, which may potentially delay RBI policy cuts. In contrast, the US inflation outlook remains stable, which could influence the upcoming US Fed policy, Nair said.
Though the domestic growth outlook remains strong, the risk of El Nino is expected to keep the market under pressure, he added.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said, “Nifty has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, suggesting a possibility of a bearish reversal. On the higher end, call writers have built a heavy position at 21,000. On the lower end, put writers are heavily present at 20,800 and 20,900.
“Therefore, Nifty is likely to remain mostly sideways to negative as long as it remains below 21,000. Only a decisive move above 21,000 might induce a resumption of the uptrend. Support is placed at 20,800, below which the index may consolidate further.”
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