A new study by Abacus Data in partnership with the Toronto Star found that the support for the Ontario PC party headed by Doug Ford has slipped further amid the raging Greenbelt controversy.
The survey determined that support for the PCs has dropped 4-points in just over a week from 38% to 34% and by 7-points since the end of July (41% to 34%). The Liberals are up 3-points to 28% while the NDP is up 2-points to 26%.
“This is the lowest level of support we’ve measured for the Ontario PCs since the last provincial election,” Abacus said in a statement.
Abacus found that regionally, there’s a three-way tie in Toronto, the PCs are ahead by 7 in the GTHA, and the PCs and NDP are tied in southwestern Ontario. The PCs are ahead in the East while the Liberals are likely slightly ahead in the North, although a very small sample size in that region makes it hard to know confidentially what is happening.
“The PCs are slightly ahead in Durham Region, trail the Liberals in Halton and Milton, and are tied with the Liberals in Peel (Mississauga, Brampton, and Caledon). The PCs are ahead in York Region,” the Abacus survey report stated.
Demographically, the PCs are ahead by 12-points among men, are tied with the NDP and Liberals among women, and do far better among older voters than younger ones.
Comparing current vote intention with past voting behaviour, Abacus found the PCs are holding onto 83% of past support with the 17% splitting almost evenly across the opposition parties. The NDP is holding onto 84% of its support while the Liberals are holding onto 76% of its past support. No opposition party has really gained from the drop in PC support.
The survey of 2,003 eligible Ontario voters was conducted from August 29 to September 4 to measure the impact of the Greenbelt scandal on support for the Ontario PCs and the Ford government. Most of this survey was completed before news of Housing Minister Steve Clark’s resignation on Monday, Abacus stated. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
“The Greenbelt scandal has very likely hurt support for the PCs. We will need to explore other measures in the coming weeks to see to what extent it has impacted people’s views of the government and the premier but a 7-point drop in support over the summer is significant. Whether this is the end to the bleeding remains to be seen. But so far, the PCs are in their weakest position since the resounding re-election in June 2022,” Abacus concluded.
